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hkitalk.net 香港交通資訊網»論壇 (B) Bus 巴士討論區 香港巴士討論 (B2) Wrightbus 破產原因分析
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[報刊新聞] Wrightbus 破產原因分析

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da54 發表於 2019-9-25 23:30 | 顯示全部樓層 |閱讀模式

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本帖最後由 da54 於 2019-9-25 23:52 編輯

綜合唔同媒體嘅報導,Wrightbus 破產嘅原因分析如下:

1. Wrightbus 股東 Wright family 提及:近年英國巴士需求急速由柴油巴士變成零排放巴士,令英國訂單急劇減少→
因為訂單減少,Wrightbus 為了保障員工就業,決定將部分原本馬來西亞的工序改回北愛爾蘭進行→
成本大增,虧損顯著增加,直到現在無法負擔

2. 有汽車製造商會指,英國巴士及旅遊巴在 2018 年第二季的登記數量比去年同期大跌 30%,而且數字已經連跌十個季度。
而英國不明朗的政經環境、各地政府對 Clean Air Zone 的要求不一等,都令投資者卻步不願投資在巴士製造業務。

3. 倫敦新市長 2016 年不再訂購 New Routemaster,而海外訂單不足以彌補

4. 不少人質疑 Wrightbus 大股東 Jeff Wright 在過去六年間,向其本人創立的宗教慈善組織Green Pastures 大捐 1500 萬鎊,讓該組織興建大型教堂及村落。雖然 Wrightbus 母公司在 2016 年有 1100 萬鎊盈利,但到了 2017 年就開始虧損 170 萬鎊,
但同年卻捐贈了 415 萬鎊給 Green Pastures ,比虧損數字更多,有人質疑是否寧願捐錢亦不協助公司渡過難關。
不過亦有人指股東確實有權自行決定股息的用途,而大部分的捐款都是公司有盈利時捐出,
而 Wright family 亦指去年致今投放了超過 2300 萬鎊協助公司。

Sources:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49818156
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-49801334
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49824525
https://www.ft.com/content/59ed8cc0-df91-11e9-9743-db5a370481bc



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NV58 發表於 2019-9-26 06:08 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 NV58 於 2019-9-25 22:49 編輯

There is a lot more to that:
1. This is not really the main reason. Whilst Wrightbus indeed lost out in the recent zero emission orders London - both Metroline and RATP London were loyal buyers of the B5LH/Gemini 3 combo before their recent order for electrics, we are talking about a loss of about 100 orders, which is not disastrous. In any case, they did win two orders of fuel cell Streetdecks, in London and Aberdeen respectively. So clearly they are not losing out as they made it out.

2. It is true that UK bus order dropped by about a fifth from 2017 to 2018, actually the 2018 figure were largely on par to the period 2011-2015. Orders in the UK peaked in 2016 and 2017, because of the spike of bus replacement in order to comply with the DDA deadline at the end of 2017. In fact, in both years the quantity of buses ordered were highest for at least the last 20 years, if not more.

If UK order is a factor, it is actually this year is looking to be particularly bad, with TfL running out of money, leaving few new bus orders in London, along with the financial difficulties of First, another loyal Wrightbus customers that stopped buying en masse. There is more on loss order in the UK, and I will come back on this later.

3. While the NRM production run does have an impact, the effect happened all the day back in 2017, and, in any case, TfL was only committed to by 1,000 anyway. So this is hardly a factor. In any case, 2017 was compensated by an excellent run of B5LH which Wrightbus bodied some 442 examples themselves. So the NRM effect really is debatable.

4. This is just one part of it. In the years gone by they have also invested significantly in their factory to boost production. While it paid off with the order spike in 2016 and 2017, as soon as order tailed off, esp. this year, they simply cannot sustain the cost base anymore.

On my points about, there are two factors that were overlooked:

a) The loss of the Singapore Euro 6 tender to MAN - The Singapore orders had been crucial to Wrightbus, particularly its production line in Malaysia, since 2010. In between 2011 to 2017, when the final B9TL was delivered, Wrightbus was bodying an annual average of nearly 250 buses for Singapore. Thus, this loss is far more disastrous to the business.

b) Wrightbus' recent built quality is noted to have fallen off a cliff. So much so that two of its loyal customers, Lothian and Metroline, turned to ADL and MCV respectively for their recent orders since 2018 and 2019 respectively.

c) Wrightbus actually spent significant money on R&D, which is evident in their development of electric buses (StreetAir), hybrids (Streetdeck & Streetlite HEV), their own product line, and even fuel cell buses. For a business of their size, they actually did much more than ADL, which is much bigger and, arguably, are smarter with their R&D by partnering well established suppliers (their partnering with BAE on hybrids are a prime example). For Wrightbus, being smaller, these kind of R&D is difficult to sustain esp. when the investment cannot be returned to profit quickly.

All told, it is clear that Wrightbus had bitten more than they could crew. The bloom of orders is the early 2010s, particularly 2017, turned out to its undoing.

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 樓主| da54 發表於 2019-9-26 12:29 | 顯示全部樓層
多謝 NV58 兄詳盡分析,我都大致認同。小弟都係見網上太多吹水唔抹咀嘅分析,所以 quote 下其他媒體的報導,尤其係 Wright family 嘅回應,俾大家參考下同拋磚引玉。當然 Wright family 一定係講有利自己嘅說話,大家信幾多可以自行判斷。

不過無可否認,Wrightbus 為咗養住一班北愛員工,將平價投返黎做嘅香港 B8L  訂單大規模咁搬返去北愛生產,其實都真係一個幾明顯嘅問題。另外仲有一樣無提嘅,就係 Wrightbus 無視訂單下跌,仍然搬去一間更大嘅新廠房 (前 JTI 煙廠),亦到惹來質疑。

今日又見到兩篇野想同大家分享下:

1. 一個做咗 7 年嘅 Wrightbus 前員工分享點樣睇住呢間公司由盛變衰
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=697578454001881&id=587432885016439

入面主要提到雖然 Wrightbus 講到英國巴士市場萎縮係主因,但批評個別管理層嘅問題先係破產唯一原因。

佢好敬重現年九十幾歲嘅創辦人兒子 William Wright,佢咁大年紀仍然關心業務,不過去到近年就俾管理層排斥出管理層。之後公司管理就變得混帳,策略決定連番失誤,例如開會變成橡皮圖章、請人可以走後門。公司工作文化變差、士氣低落,無人重視質素,結果客戶投訴,最後訂單亦減少,管理層反而責怪員工,造成惡性循環。佢形容2018年離職前最後的一年半係佢人生最差嘅時間,結果返工返到有抑鬱。

佢亦都質疑捐錢一事。而係 comment 到佢亦爆料,潛在買家 JCB 原本想買 JTI 塊地,但 Wrightbus 管理層只肯租塊地俾佢,令談判告吹。

(我估佢講嘅管理層係指 William Wright 個仔 Jeff Wright,即係 Green Pastures  創辦人)

2. 北愛爾蘭民主統一黨貼咗一串 tweets,講 Wrightbus 嘅問題
https://twitter.com/dup_online/status/1175358929162907648

重點:
1. 潛在買家可能都係等緊呢個時候執平貨
2. 2017年 Wrightbus 業務其實係穩定,不過脫歐令英鎊匯價下跌影響越黎越大,亦影響潛在買家的收購意欲 (而 William Wright 當年係支持脫歐)
3. 又係講 Green Pastures 問題,例如政府嘅 Invest NI 資助佢做 R&D,但係 Wrightbus 轉頭又捐錢走
4. Wrightbus 而家係向 Jeff Wright 擁有嘅地產公司租地做廠,所以 Wrightbus 破產係影響唔到塊地

另外,有前員工發現一間 Wrightbus 用過嘅外判散工公司貼出新嘅招聘告示,請人砌巴士,懷疑係 Wrightbus 炒晒人後,接管人全面改用外判員工繼續砌車
https://www.jobcentreonline.com/JCOLFront/FreeSearchJobDetails.aspx?VRef=1439702&FreeSearch=production&SortBy=Date&Desc=True&JobNo=6&fbclid=IwAR1VgSbiJdIEpWJoRNAUE-k4kH1sHtdkdl8EkErnufwLKbIPGup-G4OTYjM




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 樓主| da54 發表於 2019-9-27 12:32 | 顯示全部樓層

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https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49837250

Wright family 又有澄清,話兩個潛在Wrightbus買家,一個肯租塊地 (我估係濰柴),不過臨尾縮沙;另一個買家就想買地 (我估係當地商人),但無提出過實際建議.....

不過無論如何,明顯 Jeff Wright 都係玩緊財技..... 同當年中巴有 d 似......
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NV58 發表於 2019-9-27 19:00 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
da54 發表於 2019-9-27 04:32
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49837250

Wright family 又有澄清,話兩個潛在Wrightbus買 ...

I am reading that Jeff Wright tried to charge £1M per annum for factory lease, which is the show stopper. I guess he was asking a ridiculous amount for the land and that's why the other party led by the heir of JCB pulled out as well.

While it is only speculation, I can't help but being flabbergasted that the business is literally fallen by the sheer greed of one person.

Nevertheless, this is only one other pieces that broke Wrightbus. I have done some analysis to their output which actually dispelled some of the things they have said in their statement. Hopefully I will have enough time tonight to share it.
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