颱風尤特過菲律賓後擬轉向北上...

原帖由 hp7629 於 12/12/2006 03:31 發表
In my limited understanding, there will be rainning on 12/13 - 12/16 because of the Typhoon Utor + cold front.  Enjoy lati-rain or thunderstorm (if you are good luck, bonus! )  on 12/14...

The rain increases better if Typhoon goes to Hai Nan, but not goes to Vietnam.
Else, the condition of rainning is because of cold front (90%) + the typhoon (10%).

朋友 cold front(那團冷空氣) 還在好北的地方耶!!
我看過香港天文台 12122006 00UTC的天氣圖, KMA, JMA衛星圖都找不到在香港附近的cold front, 莫非我眼花?

至於下一雨成因, 應該是源於TC 2506的外圍雨帶所做成.
而一股東北季候風的補充我相信不會有讓雨勢加劇.

看一看 Infrared NHC Enhancement 衛星圖就一清二楚了,

轉自 University of Wisconsin - Madison, Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies.
我作分析的 IR image 是攝於 12 DEC 06 12:33 UTC
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/westpac/images/xxirgms5n.GIF

P.S. 在西藏附近有一大團冷空氣, 強度不錯值得留意.

多言了.

Maybe you are right; according to Hong Kong Observatory, there is the rain because of cold front that may be valid (the temperature drops sharply) + Typhoon Utor (if possible) + TC 2506.  No sunshine is valid on 12/14 and 12/15 because of the lati-rain (thick clouds + rain + possible thunderstorm).  Do not forget the rain starts later!

It is hard to say if the rain increases or not because of the properties of NE monsoon.  If the NE monsoon has the cold front properties, then the thunderstorms may be possible.

Later story:
The rain will stop on 12/16, and the sunny period is not long enough to make the temperature return to normal ( about 20 degree C) since there may be no longer sunny days after 12/19.  The temperature can return to normal if and only if there have been sunny days for 5 - 7 days.  However, it is not possible up to now.

The story is still the same as in #8.

回覆 #12 hp7629 的帖子
從以下IR-衛星圖顯示, 今天TC2506的外圍雨帶為香港降水的主因.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/westpac/movies/gmsirnhc/gmsirnhcjava.html
Source: CIMSS, USA
注:需使用JAVA

再次指出在HKO, KMA的 13 DEC 2006 00UTC 天氣圖中並没有顯示有香港附近有cold front.敬請 hp7629留意.

至於那HKO預測的冷空氣補充威力相信被TC2506的外圍雨带減約了不少, 可能讓香港出現shower程度的降水.

多言了

The cold air groups or cold front come, and the weather becomes cold next 2 days after the sun shines.

The latest news at 0800: No yellow fire is valid until 1200 (pm); the sun shine has not come yet.

The story:
The group of sunshine: the story has not started yet.  No yellow fire is valid today (at least before noon).   Definition: Only selected yellow fire on Saturdays because of the quite good weather on some Saturdays.
How about the long run?  Of course, no matter the sunny days change, the temperature cannot go up to 20 degree C.
The group of rainstorm: Don't stop the shower ASAP, or we will lose the game.
Up to now, we will leave the game later, and see you!