熱帶氣旋:02W(浣熊)

拉尼娜年..估唔到真係有個早黎既風季..

02W係南海生成..由昨晚開始不斷增強..
今日強度升到STS下限~
各大氣象局均對其路徑作出預測,
香港天文台,日本氣象廳,JTWC預測會在北部灣至海南島登陸;
而台灣氣象局(CWB)則認為會在澳門附近登陸.
倘若CWB預測成真..浣熊應該對香港構成影響,
或許破了1999年颱風利奧記錄,成為令香港最早發出熱帶氣旋警告的熱帶氣旋.

現時浣熊正在西沙附近,近6小時開始停留並作緩慢的移動..
剛才在衛星雲圖發現浣熊近一小時向北推進..
要有待觀察多數小時..
歡迎討論

有個一號已經好開心
一個唔該強烈季候風連一號都冇

各大預報都東調左
台灣既預報真令人振奮

登陸左海南出番海就弱番好多...而家南邊都少左對流..都係睇定D先

原帖由 JH1912 於 2008-4-16 18:44 發表
拉尼娜年..估唔到真係有個早黎既風季..

02W係南海生成..由昨晚開始不斷增強..
今日強度升到STS下限~
各大氣象局均對其路徑作出預測,
香港天文台,日本氣象廳,JTWC預測會在北部灣至海南島登陸;
而台灣氣象局(CWB)則認為會在澳門附近登陸.
倘若CWB預測成真..浣熊應該對香港構成影響,
或許破了1999年颱風利奧記錄,成為令香港最早發出熱帶氣旋警告的熱帶氣旋.

現時浣熊正在西沙附近,近6小時開始停留並作緩慢的移動..
剛才在衛星雲圖發現浣熊近一小時向北推進..
要有待觀察多數小時..

最早發出熱帶氣旋警告的熱帶氣旋是1967年4月9日的維奧利，所以浣熊只是第二早的一號風球。
不過如果最終發出三號或以上風球的話，就會是有紀錄以來最早的三號或以上風球。

ECMWF在10天前已預測在4月19日會有熱帶氣旋登陸華南沿岸，ECMWF的準確度在近年大幅提高了，抵讚。
反觀NGP及GFS的數值預報輸出較為飄忽，它們最初預測浣熊呂宋轉向出太平洋，後來改為趨向越南及北部灣，
再改為趨向海南島及雷州半島，似乎這兩組預報模式仍有改善空間，

浣熊在今天的移動速度雖然緩慢，但整體上穩定地向北或西北偏北推進，強度亦能維持（北緯20度以南水溫高於26C）。
且看浣熊何時移至副高脊的中軸線，轉向偏東北的方向移近廣東省西部吧。

So up to now, according to HKO, the typhoon signal #3 may have chance to be issued afterward.  The weather will be bad this weekend: only rainstorms (depens on the route of the typhoon), and no sunshine is valid.  Stop the sun until next Wednesday (or not before Tuesday!)

By the way, here is some information about the weather during the typhoon period:

1. The sunshines sharply, which is the introduction.
2. The weather becomes worse and worse.
3. No sunshine is valid between the typhoon signal #1 has been issued after some time and the typhoon goes away from Hong Kong and which is far enough.  During this period, only rainny or even rainstorm is possible, and it depends on the route and levels of different typhoon.
4. The typhoon signals #3, #8's, #9, and #10 may be issued depends on the location of the typhoon.  The end point before every typhoon signal cancelled is typhoon signal #1 (effective 2007); #3 (before 2007).
5. The sun reshines after typhoon.  It may not be possible because of different lurking variables such as another thunderstorm.
Please tell if something may be wrong.  Also, you may check the information from the Geography textbooks.

Next, let us start discussing the topic:
Step 1: on 4/16/08 (Sunshine hour: 11.1 h ; rainfall: 0.00 mm; max. temperature: 30.8 degree C; good chance to get the reward of the Highest Temeperature in April 2008. )
Step 2: 4/17 and 4/18...
Step 3: from 4/18 to 4/21 (or 4/22 which we want the mist, but not sunshine.)
Step 5: after 4/23 when sunny periods reappears again.

(4/19): We want the rain (instead of mist) is on 4/22.  The sun may not come on 4/23 because the extention ot the rain or shower.  RH: 60% - 95% states the fact (?) that there is still shower on 4/23 morning.  HKO states that the sun will not shine until it really comes.

Estimate the situation on 4/23: Like the case on 4/14, the light rain is the main character since the shower has not stopped.  The sun does not shine well in this period.  However, when the temperature goes up to 25 degree C at noon, the sunny periods appears and sweeps away the light rain.  This means that the shower stopped.

Same case as 4/23: the light rain  (not the sunny intervals with shower) appears repesents the rain or shower has not stopped.  This is useful expecially we have not had sunshine for long period.  If the temperature goes up, wait until sunny periods (but not sunny intervals because of weak power) reappears.

Night time weather: Stop the moon!

I also discover one point: if there has been no sunshine for a long time, HKO will stop the next sunny period even it may come true in some future days!

Hence, the typhoon 02W, 2008 shifts northeastward and goes near to Hong Kong if it is possible.  Go northwest is bad!

Now, what is the Step 4? Now, HKO has been issuing the typhoon signal #3, we expect there is only lati- (very large) rainstorm on 4/19 - 4/21 (No sunshine is available!!).  According to the Opposite Shift Law, because there were sunny days on 4/19 - 4/21 in some last years, so we support rainstorm this year.

Furthermore, if HKO states correctly, the sun shines (will shine) on 4/24/08 when there were thunderstorms on 4/24 in last years. (Also use the Opposit Shift Law)



[ 本帖最後由 hp7629 於 2008-4-19 13:20 編輯 ]

3號風球啦，打到嚟，有無機會中啊，唔好呀星期日有節目呀 ，講開個名浣熊是韓國改的（報紙話），而嚟緊的5個分別是威馬遜（泰國），"勿"德姆（美國），夏浪（越南），娜基莉（柬埔寨），風神（中國）。